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Kind of an interesting article for those of you keeping tabs on Burma.
The jist of it:
Burma’s moving 70,000 troops to the north in order to deal with various groups for not playing ball. The Shan State Army South have been involved in skirmishes with the Burmese, and there is speculation a couple other cease-fire groups (the Kachin and UWSA) could turn on the Burmese since the junta is demanding they field border guard forces.
As long as duty free shops & casinos on the Burmese side of the boarder are open then everythinng is cool. I’m up in Mae Sai about every other weekend now & business is booming….I also found a food stall that serves up great Shan style noodles
Keep in mind that elections are in May, that’s when things will get interesting….stay tuned sportsfans
70k is a lot.
But it’s surprising what China is willing to put up with to play ball with Burma to get their access to the Indian Ocean.
Any of the groups in the north can practically ensure a mass influx of refugees into China and they’ll probably be able to cut off the planned oil supplies through Burma relatively easily too.
I mean, both regumes are practically putting their nuts on a platter for the militants in the north.
Which makes me think that we can expect a lot more than 70k troops and heavy military aid from China to Burma sooner rather than later. We really should be backing India to get this shit sorted.
@Jimbo wrote:
As long as duty free shops & casinos on the Burmese side of the boarder are open then everythinng is cool. I’m up in Mae Sai about every other weekend now & business is booming….I also found a food stall that serves up great Shan style noodles
Keep in mind that elections are in May, that’s when things will get interesting….stay tuned sportsfans
what do you do up there, if i may ask? i’ve only been to that town once, for really the only reason any foreigner ever goes there.
@ROB wrote:
70k is a lot.
But it’s surprising what China is willing to put up with to play ball with Burma to get their access to the Indian Ocean.
Any of the groups in the north can practically ensure a mass influx of refugees into China and they’ll probably be able to cut off the planned oil supplies through Burma relatively easily too.
I mean, both regumes are practically putting their nuts on a platter for the militants in the north.
Which makes me think that we can expect a lot more than 70k troops and heavy military aid from China to Burma sooner rather than later. We really should be backing India to get this shit sorted.
I’d be really interested to see if the UWSA and KIA turn on the Burmese. I seriously doubt they will, but if they do, could be the start of a very interesting summer.
Mr. B&D, I go to Mai Sai ’cause I got friends up there I hang with & drink,eat & that kinda stuff plus I’ve been seeing this really smokin’ babe who I’d like to get out of there but it aint that easy.
By the way, my friends are fully aware of military movements, but they’re not worried. The SPDC do this all the time in all parts of Burma. Just because The Irawadddy writes a story about it dosen’t make it out to mean that civil war is around the corner (some people that work for The Irrawaddy are wankers!). Like I said before wait for the elections in May, they will furnish any justifiable motive for any type reaction (violent or not) from ethnics & Burman people. In addition it may force China into a position where they will have to draw a line between who they really support in Burma.
There are rumors that Than Shwe has no legitamite ‘heir apparent” to his slot as big cheese, and he believes that anybody who takes his job may have him & his family “offed”(this is nothing new). So….it’s been said he has been very quietly been drafting plans for a slow& gradual shift towards “democracy” inside Burma. The first step is to see what happens with the May elections & the subsequent reactions. It will indeed be very interesting to see what happens in Burma the next few months & beyond.
that’s interesting. what’s the beef with the irawaddy and where do their political loyalties lie? I’m not familiar enough with that paper.
i would like to throw in food for thought. prior to the US invasion of afghanistan, burma was the world’s number 1 producer of opium. since most of it is grown in that northern region of Burma, and by doctrine, the burmese military is supposed to be self sufficient, i figure that’s something that plays into the logic of the senior officers. they already do profit off of the drug trade, more so than the local militias from what i have read.
the NATO campaign in sourthern Afghanistan, where the vast majority of afghan opium is harvested, has so far been pretty successful, and should hurt the taliban’s opium fields pretty substantially. controlling more of the golden triangle is a pretty good strategic goal if you ask me, especially if opium supply gets cut short the next couple harvest seasons in Astan. like i said, food for thought.
I think it was Khun Sha – one of Burma’s biggest ever drug lords and the largest drug lord in the world at the time, offered to sell the US government his entire crop if they were serious about the drug war. This was back in the 80s or early 90s. The price was a steal compared to the price of the drug war.
They said no obviously.
Rob- I may have been quick to say what I did about The Irrawaddy, my comment was based on knowing some folks a number of years back who used to write for the mag that were basically a bunch of exiled ABSDF political hotheads who couldn’t accept certian things about their own country…be that as it may… The Irrawaddy is OK & I think the monthly hard copy edition still goes for 100 baht at news agents around Thailand
As for other alternatives for news about Burma & related stuff take look at the following
I thought you knew about this site, jeez Rob seems like your instincts for sussing out media outlets is slipping :shock:
i usually check out mizzima for news. there’s a couple other ones like kachinnews.com, i’m sure there are dozens more, each following a specific region, but I just don’t know them. and most of the relief organizations come out with well researched reports regularly, like khrg.org, tbbc.org, freeburmarangers.org.
Yeah, I am defnitely slipping jimbo.
Thanks for the sites guys – I just added them all to my bloglines account (along with the other 200 or so geopolitical sites I follow) :roll:
For Thai stuff I follow this one a bit: http://www.asiancorrespondent.com/bangkok-pundit-blog
Beardandragon – one of the reasons I generally don’t follow news reports from NGOs in very politicised environments is because I find it hard to seperate the bullshit and exageration from the gems of knowledge. Do you reckon those sites are much better?
khrg is one of the less politicised ones. i’ve browsed through a lot for my research. but khrg is obviously geared towards human rights abuses, so they are quite anti Burma, and to a lesser extent anti insurgent groups. khrg won’t give you news, but more of an analysis and trends. it’s obviously set up as a platform for advocacy. surprisingly, UN reports tend to be the direct opposite and heavily favorable to the Burmese regime by comparison, though i suspect that is because the alternative is to get kicked out.
you are right, it is difficult to separate the political stuff from the news, but the irony is the best source of news are typically relief groups/NGOs, who have access to people that flee fighting or are internally displaced inside. so much so, I’ve spoken with a couple that regularly get rounded up by Thai authorities and pressed for information. besides, photos and basic statistics like number of fleeing refugees generally don’t lie. and a photo of a burning village or atrocity is difficult to justify, no matter how political.
Swain has a blog up for the stuff he does, it’s 4th wallrelief blogspot or something like that. The good doctor knows about & it’s anything but political. Strange thing is I don’t know why Mikethehack & Swainy have had these bitch slapping sessions on the BFC. in addition JITW thinks that what Swain does is bogus in terms of NGO work. I was down in Mae Sariang in January & met with a couple of the people he works with. It’s totally legit & striaghtforward compared to other NGOs. I don’t got a clue why Mike & James are firing off kneejerk salvos at poor old Swainy.
I forgot to add Rob,
Go to the following for a good laugh
Kinda like The Onion but Thai style
Will definitely look at khrg
@Jimbo – no idea – maybe you should ask James. ;)@Jimbo wrote:
Swain has a blog up for the stuff he does, it’s 4th wallrelief blogspot or something like that. The good doctor knows about & it’s anything but political. Strange thing is I don’t know why Mikethehack & Swainy have had these bitch slapping sessions on the BFC. in addition JITW thinks that what Swain does is bogus in terms of NGO work. I was down in Mae Sariang in January & met with a couple of the people he works with. It’s totally legit & striaghtforward compared to other NGOs. I don’t got a clue why Mike & James are firing off kneejerk salvos at poor old Swainy.
probably more to do with how each view the others role. private security/military often are at odds with NGOs as to who is actually providing the real relief. I am fortunate in having done a little of both, so I can sort of see their attitudes. Sure, nothing’s gonna change until there’s a political and security solution, but in the interim, it’s normally the smaller NGOs that can get relief to where its needed fastest. I’ve been down to Mae Seriang as well and was impressed with the work that NGOs and CBOs that are down there – not only in terms of getting relief to where its needed, but also in documenting it and pushing advocacy issues. Are they going to suddenly create a vibrant democracy in Burma? No, but it’s a rare breed of person that’s willing to jump in there and do something about it.
@ROB wrote:
I gotta admit, one of the biggest pack of cunts you ever meet on travels are trust fund wankers who do a masters in logistics and start working for a big NGO.
They know practically everything. Just ask them.
hey…that’s what I plan on doing after the summer (even though unfortunately I am not a trust fund wanker)
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