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If this is true and if it holds, this could be big and could mean a lot of people WON’T be dead in the coming months, years, and decades. Waiting with cautious optimism.
http://www.dvb.no/news/karen-rebels-govt-agree-ceasefire/18541
Karen rebels, govt agree ceasefire
By NAW NOREEN
Published: 4 November 2011
Karen rebels, govt agree ceasefire thumbnail
A DKBA soldier carries a rocket launcher in the army’s territory inside Karen state (Francis Wade)Following intensive negotiations in the Karen state capital of Hpa-an yesterday, the opposition Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) and the Burmese government have agreed to a ceasefire that will see both sides lay down arms on the eve of the anniversary of their conflict.
The head of the DKBA, Na Kham Mwe, told DVB last night that the truce would be rolled out among forces across Karen state on 6 November, but that fighting would cease in some areas beginning 5 November.
The government will reportedly begin to withdraw troops from DKBA territory tomorrow. Na Kham Mwe said some had already been pulled out of the Kawkareit region.
Prior negotiations between the government and the DKBA had failed to end in agreement. Few details of yesterday’s talk have not been revealed, nor the conditions attached to the ceasefire.
The DKBA’s Major San Aung said only that the two sides had agreed to set up a liaison office in the border town of Myawaddy, and “to pass through one another’s territory whilst carrying arms, providing there is prior permission”.
The two sides have been embroiled in a bitter conflict since DKBA troops attacked government positions in Myawaddy on 7 November last year, the day of Burma’s first elections in 20 years.
Na Kham Mwe’s troops defected from the pro-government faction of the DKBA in August last year after he refused to transform into a Naypyidaw-controlled Border Guard Force. Similar refusals among other ethnic armies in Burma have sparked widespread fighting this year.
The government held talks with the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) last month, but they quickly broke down. Shortly after its defection, DKBA troops began fighting alongside the KNLA, whose 60-year war with the Burmese government is thought to be the world’s longest-running.
The DKBA was formed in the mid-1990s after a faction split off from the KNLA and sided with the government. The remaining DKBA troops who did not defect with Na Kham Mwe last year are now part of the Naypyidaw-controlled Border Guard Force.
Though I was cautiously optimistic, it looks like it may be splitting the opposition is what will rule the day. I was hoping it was a move toward easing hostilities on all sides. Time will tell, too early to know for sure, but it looks like the KNLA still may be in the SPDC crosshairs. Plus ceasefires have a tendency to not hold anyway, so once again, time will tell.
There are a bunch changes going on in Burma that seem to be going in a positive direction. The issues regarding the ethnic minorities (Karen, Katchin, Wa, Shan etc.) has always been a thorny issue for many different reasons.If the transitions that are gradually or slowly, yet carefully taking place in Rangoon remain on positive/constructive course then the ethnic groups may (I stress the word may) have only 2 options 1) go along with “national” program (democratic reforms?) for the future, whatever they may be or 2) remain marginalized, which in the long term may not be so good for them. Anyway on a broader scale ethnic groups throughout the sub-Mekong river region (mostly northern Thailand , northern Laos & perhaps southern Yunan) have pretty much fallen into the fold of their respective countries, not out of choice but necessity. To give an example many youngsters in northern Thailand that are either Lisu, Akha, Lahu or from another ethnic group now attend governmet primary& secondary schools in addition to governmet universities, 10 years ago this did not happen & many get scholarships. Last year I lved in Chaing Rai and knew a Lisu woman who was attending a university outside Chiang Rai city. The woman basically rejected her Lisu background & claimed she was 100% Thai……this type of mentality is the trend among most, if not all the younger generation of ethnic minorities…..I suspect in the future this will happen to the ethnic groups in Burma as well if it hasn’t already started…..the change will come via the younger generation….for good or not
Dave-As you alrready know the Karen in general have always been a stubborn lot…but every person has a breaking point
Rob- The fishing in Bangkok now is great, just yesterday my neighbor caught 4 carp, 2 giant catfish & a croc. Another neighbor caught a Krait snake between 3-4 meters long! You’re missing all the fun!
I would be careful before jumping towards too much optimism too soon here. Saw Beard (Ni Kham Way) was part of the DKBA and didn’t want to go into the Border Guard Force which would bring the minority militias under more direct control of the Burmese Army (with their officers being effectively in charge) over time. He made an assault upon Myawaddy among other things. The regime is currently facing the Kachin in the north and may have wanted to neutralize some problems. It is hard to say sicen this has been done many many times before going back into the 60s and 70s.
This DKBA faction did not rejoin the KNLA (and did not want to) but with both in the field it made things slightly more difficult for the military. There have been feelers put out to the KNU for talks as well but essentially this DKBA battalion gets back its status quo ante bellum, at least until it is “urged” to become a Border Guard Force again. The government has a long term strategic aim in place to secure and control its borders and remove threats from minority and other militias. This has been in place for decades. The current period is interesting because of the talk of optimism at the center. Whether and how that extends to the borderlands is uncertain at this point. Many minority leaders they want a form of federalism but that would mean a constitutional change. Good luck with that. Now that the government is being praised for openness and business is knocking, it may decide that once ASSK decides the NLD can join in it has done enough. If that happens things will get worse before they get better. But all that said it means there is less fighting in that quarter (and back to the business of making money for those in charge)
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